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Scenario modelling: how to predict outcomes of organisational change

There can be many drivers of organisational change. Internal and external forces are the contributors making these shifts natural and constant; reflective of an adaptive mechanism in response to transformative business changes. These changes are driven by competition, market opportunity or a byproduct of natural organisational progression. They are subtle and are not necessarily inter-related business activities or outcomes.

Another driver characterises organisation change as a dramatic one, tied to a specific business event. For example a merger, acquisition, expansion or reduction in workforce. These events often fraught with significant risk and uncertainty which can reduce employee morale, productivity, customer relations and profitability.

Regardless of the nature of organisational change, one thing is certain: It is more likely to happen than not. Whether it’s through natural evolution based on changing the allocation of resources or a sudden, pronounced shift. Organisations must monitor the forces of change and when it is needed, and for success, adaptation to change must exist in the current workforce.

Charting Organisational Change

Charting (or mapping) is one of the most critical factors in determining success during the age of exploration; it could spell the success or doom of a mission. Mapping helped drive predictive, successful outcomes allowing explorers to navigate the optimal charted course.

The same holds true more than ever in today’s organisation. The benefit of mapping organisational transformation is to enable informed business decision making; to evaluate the differences between two points in time before such changes even occur. Being able to analyse multiple what-if scenarios allows the organisation to look into numerous courses of action and find the optimal plan.

Modelling Organisational Change for Predictive Outcomes

Org modelling charts measurable change (often expressed by headcount and budgetary goals) to help drive efficient and favourable business outcomes. The ability to model the future state of the organisation and compare to the current state is vital to help drive fact-based decisions and analysis to determine the most favourable course of action and outcome. Such measurements involve comparing the organisation before and after the change is made.

The assessment measures the differences in the organisation between these two points in time. The key to successfully modelling organisational transformation is to have a clear picture of the current state of the organisation (the “now”) vs. a future state (the “model”). With HR metrics associated to help compare the two points in time, quantitative goals can be defined.

Another dimension to organisational change is time. In general, expediting informed business decision-making can lower the cost and risk to the organisation (think of the negative impact of employee morale when a merger occurs when there is no certainty for the employees continued role).

org.manager Scenarios Drive Informed Organisational Change

org.manager provides a simulation mode that takes a snapshot of your current org structure (the “now”), so you can create multiple what-if scenarios (the “model”) to come up with the optimal organisational plan. By displaying metrics around headcount and budget, the organisation can easily see the changes being considered, and if they satisfy the goals associated with this change.

Restructures OM

The modelling exercise begins by displaying the current organisational structure (“the now”) along with calculating the key metrics such as headcounts, budget and expenses that will update as modifications are made.

Org Modelling Made Easy

Organisational modelling is carried out in the org.manager simulation mode by extracting and visualising your HR and HCM data. A snapshot is taken of your data so you can visualise your current org structure while making changes in your “model” view. All without touching your HR system of record as this is entirely separate from your sandbox.

Org structure modifications are easily accomplished by simple drag-and-drop when moving persons or positions to change the reporting relationship. You can also create new positions or departments in one step. As changes occur, you get immediate feedback for the measurable results such as headcount and budget.

While working on multiple what-if scenarios, you can quickly view and export all new additions, changes and deletions made in your model based on positions, persons, departments and business units. Summary roll-up of key metrics like headcount and salary help you manage quantitative goals for the transformation to be conducted.

Modelling is also a collaborative exercise, and you can fully control who has ‘read and write’ access to your models, along with log analysis to view each change made. Modelling can be performed in a centralised or distributed manner, reflective of your current organisational structure.

Highlighted Changes

Evaluate changes made to the organisation in real-time. Metrics recalculate to help you analyse headcount and budgetary impact based on modifications made while a simulation log helps track all changes.

Publish-Simulation

Users can invite others to collaborate on simulations in a secure sandbox environment

Taming the Merger and Acquisition Beast

Mergers and acquisitions are one of the most potentially beneficial business events for an organisation, but they can also be fraught with significant risk when executed poorly and ultimately be very costly to the organisation. The time dimension can become a risk factor: As decisions remain unmade, associated costs can increase exponentially not to mention the negative impact to morale when changes seem to happen randomly and without a cohesive plan.

It’s imperative that risk be mitigated by being able to chart and navigate through this sudden change to the organisation and execute it sooner rather than later. By providing a solution that helps you be more nimble in managing transformations, the inherent risk associated with costly delays is mitigated.

One inherent challenge to developing a unified organisational model is that you are dealing with two separate and disparate structures and need to combine them. How can you bridge this gap and conquer this beast? Monster spreadsheets or a complex database is not the answer in providing your business leaders with the necessary tools to help navigate their course.

Merger and Aquisition

View of two hierarchy structures side by side during the process of merging them into one

org.manager solves this problem by allowing you to create and visualise, side-by-side, both your organisation and the company’s organisational structure that is being acquired. This is possible because org.manager is an expert at extracting HR data from any system of record.

The result is you can not only view your org structure as well as the acquired company, but you can drag-and-drop people and positions from the acquired company into your current organisational structure to map out this “new” combined organisation.

Enabling Informed Modelling Decisions

The approach to effectively carry out org modelling is based on consultation with organisations of all sizes. This solution is meant to support the following necessary use cases to help drive informed business decisions:

• What is the current headcount and salary structure of my organisation?
• What are the headcount and budgetary goals of our organisation?
• How can I quickly add, modify or remove positions, employees or departments for my organisation?
• How can I quickly compare changes made in the plan with the current org structure?
• Who will be the new leaders of our organisation?
• Which positions remain unfilled?
• Which departments will be over-budget?
• Which departments lack headcount or do not have a supervisor?
• What new positions need to be created and when are these positions to be filled?
• Are we retaining our high performers?
• What objects (positions, persons, depts) have been created, moved, or deleted in the model?
• How can I share my what-if planning with other colleagues in a secure, shared environment?
• How can I view a log of which changes have been made and by whom?

All of the above use cases can be quickly addressed based on the org.manager simulation mode (per some of the screenshots provided).

Want to learn more?

For more information on how org.manager can help you to remodel your organisation, please feel free to contact us directly.

about the author
Lee Kennedy

Lee, Navigo's Marketing Manager, is passionate about solving operational and strategic HR issues. She is actively exploring creative ways for organisations to visualise and free their HRIS data.